The headline number got better. The number that shows how much the country is paying for oil and imports got worse.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has trimmed its forecasts for the balance-of-payments (BOP) deficit to $9.2 billion in 2026, or 1.8% of GDP, from the $10.7 billion (2.1%) it projected last quarter, according to Philstar (Oct. 14, 2026). For 2027 it now sees a deficit of $8.5 billion (1.6% of GDP), down from $11 billion (2.1%).
That is the good news, and the BSP's statement to that effect is likely to be the part quoted. The rest of the table is less comfortable.
The current account got worse
Per Philstar's report, the BSP now projects a 2026 current account deficit of $19.1 billion (3.8% of GDP), wider than the $18 billion (3.6%) forecast earlier. For 2027 it expects $19.4 billion (3.6% of GDP), a slight narrowing from $19.7 billion (3.7%).
The reason is on the import side. The BSP raised its 2026 goods import forecast to $139.7 billion from $135.3 billion, and its 2027 forecast to $143.9 billion from $142 billion. Goods exports were also revised up, to $67.2 billion in 2026 and $69.9 billion in 2027, but by less. The result: a goods and services trade deficit of $58.6 billion in 2026, wider than the $56.7 billion forecast before, and $60.3 billion in 2027, narrower than the earlier $61.7 billion.
Services exports were revised up to $53.6 billion (2026) and $55.7 billion (2027), and BPO revenues to $34.5 billion and $35.5 billion, both slightly higher than before.
What the BSP blames
The BSP said the deficits "highlight the shock from elevated oil and commodity prices," and cited geopolitical tensions and uneven global growth. It described gross international reserves, forecast unchanged at $104 billion in 2026 and $105 billion in 2027, as "serving as a critical buffer against external shocks." Cash remittances were also left unchanged: $36.6 billion in 2026 (2.7% growth) and $37.7 billion in 2027 (3% growth).
The Philstar report attributes the statements to the central bank as an institution and names no BSP official. It does not say what the BSP expects the peso to do, nor how much of the import bill is oil.
Notes on what doesn't line up
An improved BOP deficit alongside a wider current account deficit means other flows, not trade, are filling the gap; the Philstar report does not break these down, so readers should not assume it reflects a stronger trade position. Pulpulitiko's Oct. 9 report on Bank of America's outlook cited a current account gap of 6.4% of GDP; the BSP's 3.8% forecast for 2026 is a different projection, and the two have not been reconciled here. They may measure different periods.
Context
Pulpulitiko reported on Oct. 6 that September inflation hit 7.2% on food, fuel and transport, and on Oct. 10 that the Palace's response was to keep existing programs and watch fuel. Elevated oil prices are now cited by the central bank as the reason the country's external accounts stay in the red. The government's own answer to fuel prices has so far been existing programs and no new measures, costs or targets, as we reported.
Reporting on the BSP's separate warnings about El Niño's effect on prices and supplies appeared in the Manila Times on Oct. 15; we were unable to read that article for this report and have not relied on it.
Sources
- Philstar, "BSP trims BOP deficit forecasts for 2026, 2027," Oct. 14, 2026: https://philstar.com/business/2026/10/14/2562958/bsp-trims-bop-deficit-forecasts-2026-2027
- Pulpulitiko, "Inflation Lands at 7.2%," Oct. 6, 2026; "Palace's Answer to 7.2% Inflation," Oct. 10, 2026; "BofA Sees Philippine Growth Staying Below 3%," Oct. 9, 2026.