Fitch Unit Warns of Political Violence Risk if Sara Duterte Is Removed from 2028 Race
A Fitch Solutions political risk arm says the Marcos-Duterte power struggle has become a material threat to stability, with businesses already bracing for higher contingency costs.
The impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio, which formally opened on May 18, 2026, has pushed the Philippines into elevated political risk territory — with the possibility of violence if the Vice President is ultimately barred from seeking the presidency in 2028, according to a risk assessment published this week by GeoQuant, a data and analytics unit of Fitch Solutions.
"Public impeachment hearings against VP Sara Duterte have sharply increased Social Polarization and Government Risks by intensifying the Marcos-Duterte power struggle, with the potential for further instability and political violence if she is removed from contention for the 2028 presidency," GeoQuant said in its report, cited by BusinessWorld on May 20, 2026.
What the risk model shows
GeoQuant tracks political risk using quantitative indicators updated in near-real time. Its assessment found that social polarization risk and government risk began rising when the House Committee on Justice opened hearings on the Duterte impeachment complaint on March 25, 2026.
The firm attributed the escalation to the zero-sum nature of the contest between two of the Philippines' most powerful political dynasties. "The case pits two of the country's most powerful political families against one another, Marcos and Duterte, who ran as a team in the 2022 general elections but have fallen out over differing constituency and policy agendas," GeoQuant said.
At the core of the risk calculus is a 2028 succession question. With President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s term constitutionally ending in May 2028, Duterte — who announced her presidential ambitions in February 2026 — is widely seen as his most formidable potential successor. If convicted by the Senate, she would be permanently barred from holding public office.
"Marcos claims not to be behind the investigation, but his allies control the House of Representatives and her removal from the field of potential candidates would allow Marcos to find an ally as successor," GeoQuant noted.
The firm warned: "Expect both Government and Social Polarization Risks to continue to rise as long as the process continues, with the potential for political violence rising [if] Duterte is sidelined."
Business community alarmed
The risk assessment landed as the Philippine business community was already voicing alarm. ASEAN Business Advisory Council Chairman Jose Ma. "Joey" Concepcion III, speaking on the sidelines of the BusinessWorld Economic Forum on May 19, called on legislators to end what he described as a "circus" in the Senate.
"The Philippines has to continue to get its GDP going higher. For that to happen, the business sector must be doing well. Hopefully our legislators will support this and that the circus happening there will end," Concepcion told BusinessWorld.
He added that with the Philippines holding the ASEAN chairmanship this year, the Senate turmoil posed a reputational cost. "We have to be able to present a more pleasant picture to our foreign investors. It is very important because Philippines hosting the ASEAN only happens once every 10 to 12 years," he said.
Hansley Juliano, a political science lecturer at Ateneo de Manila University, told BusinessWorld that elevated polarization ratings translate directly into business costs. "It's bad for business because usually, shifts in regimes or non-peaceful transitions mean business continuity is compromised or insurances/preparations kick in, which impact operational costs," he said.
Juliano drew a parallel to the political tensions that preceded the EDSA II and III uprisings following the impeachment trial of former President Joseph Estrada. "Whether it ends the same, we have yet to see. But it looks unstable nonetheless," he said.
Where the trial stands
The Senate convened as an impeachment court on May 18, with Senate President Alan Peter Cayetano declaring the trial open. Duterte was given 10 days to respond to the impeachment articles, which include charges of misuse of public funds, unexplained wealth, betrayal of public trust, graft, bribery, and an alleged plot to assassinate President Marcos, First Lady Liza Araneta-Marcos, and former House Speaker Martin Romualdez.
The trial is expected to begin hearing evidence in the first week of June. Duterte has denied all charges and has called the impeachment politically motivated.
She was impeached by the House of Representatives for the second time on May 11, 2026, with 257 votes in favor, 25 against, and 9 abstentions — making her the first official in Philippine history to be impeached twice by the lower chamber.
Context
The Marcos-Duterte alliance, forged ahead of the 2022 elections, began fracturing publicly in late 2024 over competing policy priorities and the question of who would control the 2028 succession. The split accelerated after Sara Duterte resigned as Education Secretary in November 2024.
The Senate's role as impeachment court became doubly fraught following a May 11 leadership coup that installed Cayetano — a Duterte family ally — as Senate President, raising questions about the impartiality of the trial's presiding officer. Cayetano has pledged to follow constitutional procedures without delay.
The Senate chamber was also the site of a shooting incident on May 13 during a standoff over the attempted arrest of Senator Ronald "Bato" dela Rosa on an International Criminal Court warrant — an episode that GeoQuant noted contributed to the surge in its government risk indicators.
Sources:
- Chloe Mari A. Hufana and Justine Irish D. Tabile, "Political violence possible if Duterte removed — GeoQuant," BusinessWorld Online, May 20, 2026. https://www.bworldonline.com/top-stories/2026/05/20/750737/political-violence-possible-if-duterte-removed-geoquant/
- "Philippines launches VP Duterte impeachment trial amid political division," Al Jazeera, May 18, 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/18/philippines-launches-vp-duterte-impeachment-trial-amid-political-division
- "Senators don robes as Sara Duterte impeachment trial opens," Philippine Star, May 18, 2026. https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2026/05/18/2528845/senators-don-robes-sara-duterte-impeachment-trial-opens
- "Philippine senate convenes as impeachment court to try vice president as political storm rages," The Washington Post, May 18, 2026. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/05/18/philippines-duterte-impeachment-senate/